The latest quarterly statistics show little movement on the asylum backlog, which was to be expected given the Home Office was not making many decisions due to the Illegal Migration Act. Following restrictions to the ability of people to bring their immediate family to the UK with them, we have seen drops in the numbers of students and health and care workers coming here. Below I also take a look at fee waivers, detention, late applications to the EU Settlement Scheme, British citizenship and more.

Asylum

Around 16% of irregular arrivals for the year ending June 2024 were Afghans, because of the lack of alternative routes for them. The top five nationalities of people arriving across the Channel were Afghan, Iranian, Vietnamese, Turkish and Syrian.

Only 4% of claims made by people who arrived by small boat in the year ending June 2024 have been processed. No one who arrived this way since 20 July 2023 had their cases decided by the end of June 2024. This was because of the prohibition on their being granted leave under the Illegal Migration Act 2023, the position has since changed and these claims are now being processed.

Between 2018 and June 2024, there were 3,788 returns of small boat arrivals (3% of the total). These seem likely to be mainly Albanians. In just the year ending June 2024 there were 2,336 returns of small boat arrivals and 89% were Albanian nationals. The number of Albanian arrivals via this route has dropped considerably, with only 755 people in the year ending June 2024.

Looking at the data on asylum claims more broadly, we can see that the backlog has not moved very much since the beginning of the year. It was 118,329 at the end of March and was 118,882 at the end of June (main applicants and their dependents).

The grant rate for initial applications for the period April to June 2024 was 33%, which is a big drop from an already low 42% for the period January to March 2024. In July to September 2023 the grant rate was 79%. As they did in the last quarterly statistics, the Home Office links this drop to the Nationality and Borders Act 2022 and the raised standard of proof. Colin has written previously on why that should not be making much of a difference.

The grant rate for the top ten nationalities of people claiming asylum can be seen in the below Home Office chart:

The Home Office summary says:

There were 224,742 cases in the asylum system at the end of June 2024, of which less than 40% were cases awaiting an initial decision. The number of cases in the wider asylum system is 4% higher than in June 2023, despite a 36% decrease in the number awaiting initial decisions over the same period. This is because a large number of cases which received initial decisions in the latest year received refusals, and many of those will have gone to appeal, (therefore remaining in the wider asylum system whilst awaiting their appeal outcomes). 

The data (at table ASY_03) shows that of the 224,742 cases, 87,217 are in the initial asylum decision work in progress cohort. The “Post decision” work in progress cohort stood at 77,384 at the end of June 2023 and had almost doubled to 137,525 at the end of June 2024. This includes cases where there is an appeal outstanding, there is removal action being taken, or the case is “on hold”. It is unclear how many of these have moved into the appeals system, but we may see another substantial leap in the next tribunals statistics.

EU Settlement Scheme

The statistics for the EU Settlement Scheme show that 640,890 late applications have been made since the deadline of 30 June 2021 up to 30 June 2024.

The Home Office changed the criteria that late applications had to meet in order to be deemed valid in August last year. In January they slightly eased the criteria for some people. However, since the deadline of 30 June 2021 passed until the end of June 2024, 127,024 applications have been rejected as invalid and of those, 70,572 (56%) have been decided under the revised validity criteria and were rejected as not having reasonable grounds for delay.

A legal challenge to the Home Office’s approach to late applications was heard last week, and remember that we have a webinar coming up on this issue on 4 September 2024.

Fee waivers

We can see that applications for fee waivers continue to outstrip the number of decisions being made, with the data showing that 22,581 applications were made in the period April to June 2024. Of the applications made in that period, 121 were granted and 1,849 were refused and 20,508 are still waiting for a decision. Another 13,613 applications made before April 2024 are also still waiting for a decision.

The rate of decision making is so slow that it is difficult to discern any impact the increased immigration health surcharge and Appendix FM application fees have had on the grant rate for fee waiver applications.

The Independent Chief Inspector of Borders and Immigration has just launched a call for evidence in relation to the Home Office’s management of fee waiver applications which hopefully many of you will be able to respond to.

Detention

On detention the long term downward trend of the number of people being detained has continued, with 12% fewer people entering detention over the twelve month period ending June 2024. Just over a third of these were Albanians.

Yesterday, the Home Secretary announced that she intends to reverse this positive trend and will instead increase the capacity of the detention estate.

There has been an increase in the proportion of people who leave detention and are removed from the UK, from 25% in the year ending June 2023 to 42% in the year ending June 2024. The Home Office continues to blame the longer term reduction in detained people being returned on their raising issues preventing return only once they are in detention. As ever, no mention is made of the fact that legal aid is inaccessible to most people in the community, however legal advice is available to those in immigration removal centres and this is why claims are often only raised here, because it is the first time the person has received any legal advice.

Students

In the year ending June 2024, there were 432,225 sponsored study visas granted to main applicants, 13% fewer than the previous year. There were 94,253 visas issued to student dependents, 39% fewer than in the year to June 2023. This follows changes made last year to restrict the ability of students to bring their family members.

Health and Care workers

In relation to work routes, the number of ‘Health and Care worker’ visas issued to main applicants is down 81% between April and June 2024 compared with the same period in 2023. Dependent visas have also fallen by 66% over the same period. As with students, this follows changes made which remove the ability of care workers to bring their family to the UK with them.

Settlement and British citizenship

In the year ending June 2024 there were 17% more grants of settlement made, totalling 137,020.

There was an even larger increase in the number of people being granted British Citizenship, which was up 37% compared to the previous year, to 246,488. This included 58,261 grants of citizenship to EU nationals, 41% more than in the previous year.

Conclusion

This is the final statistics release of the immigration and asylum system as it was under the control of the previous government. It will be interesting to see how and by how much the asylum backlog has started to move again in the next quarterly release. Stay tuned for a bit more analysis to come, including a look at the statistics on asylum claims based on sexual orientation, which are released annually rather than quarterly.