Immigration white paper – the case for optimism and what sponsors should do

The foreword to the white paper contained little affirmation of the legitimate reasons employers have for recruiting from overseas, or of the contribution many skilled migrants have made to the UK. The Prime Minister made a decision to refer to high levels of inward migration as causing ‘incalculable damage’, and the immediate headlines were around restrictions.

Moreover, for many of the measures announced, the paper did not set out whether a transitional provision will apply. This leaves those skilled migrants already in the UK, who have already made commitments and contributions to this country based on the current system, uncertain whether they are the intended target. This makes for very bad public relations.

For sponsors of skilled migration, however, are there reasons for optimism? (Or at least relief?) Here I suggest three.

First, an Armageddon scenario, in which there are further increases to the salary thresholds, has not come about. The salary requirement for Skilled Worker will continue to be based on the 50^th percentile, and that can now be anticipated to continue for the foreseeable future. (This said – salary thresholds will increase! See below.)

Second, the government has increased the skill level requirement for Skilled Worker occupation codes to Regulated Qualifications Framework (RQF) 6 or higher, for those entering the Skilled Worker category. But they have clearly confirmed (in this case) that there will be a transitional provision for those already in the category, to include the ability to extend their visa, change employment and take supplementary employment including in occupations below RQF6. This is an important provision; it will create a second protected cohort of Skilled Workers, to add to those who entered the route before April 2024 (who continue to benefit from the lower salary thresholds until 2030).

Third, many of the restrictive changes announced are subject to a programme of consultation. This leaves much left to play for. There will be engagement with sector bodies to produce workforce strategies for sectors which have seen [what the government sees as] high levels of overseas recruitment. There will be a consultation on the ‘opportunity to reduce the qualifying period’ for settlement (from 10 years to five) later in 2025 on a points basis. 

The Temporary Shortage List will contain occupations that the Migration Advisory Committee has already identified as in shortage, or which are crucial to the UK’s Industrial Strategy. The Labour Market Evidence Group will take time to become established. For the time being then, a preservation of the existing list is not off the table.

But real optimism lays concrete plans for success. How should employers be reacting? Here are some ideas.

Reassure sponsored workers

Public discourse can confuse measures aimed at future immigration with those targeting people who are already here. Put together with the tone and timing of the white paper, this is creating fear. Employers should communicate with their existing sponsored workers.

We know that there will be a transitional provision to protect the raise in the skill level, and there are strong reasons for expecting transitional provisions in respect of most, if not all, of the other changes. It is very unlikely, for example, that those who are already in the UK on a five-year path to settlement in the Skilled Worker route, will now be told that they must spend an additional five years here in order to qualify for settlement.

Review hiring practices

Where employers do regularly recruit from abroad, they should review the skill level of those roles, and how they will be impacted if the Skilled Worker skill level increases to RQF6+. This level refers to degree level work). Table 1 of Appendix Skilled Occupations currently contains all eligible roles at RQF3+ (RQF3 meaning school-leaver / A-level work), so a quick and easy way to find RQF6+ SOC codes (or find which occupation codes are being removed) is to look at the Table 2 roles eligible for Global Business Mobility: Senior or Specialist Worker roles.

Anticipate salary threshold rises

We know that salary thresholds will rise (as the white paper says so). The current going rates by occupation are based on the 50^th percentile of pay based on the 2023 dataset from the Office of National Statistics. This may be re-based to the latest 2024 dataset. But in addition, the current general salary threshold of £38,700 per annum is based upon the median pay for resident workers in eligible occupation codes. So if only RQF6+ roles, which pay more, are eligible for Skilled Worker sponsorship, then the general salary threshold will rise as well (and this is independent of which ONS dataset is used).

Anticipate sudden changes

We are dealing with a cut off to low skilled migration and so the Home Office is likely to anticipate a surge of applications. This makes it more likely that they might (a) make the changes with a short notice period, and / or (b) restrict the supply of Certificates of Sponsorship (CoS). Smart employers will ensure they have a sufficient allocation of CoS available, and work with immigration providers who are able to react quickly and in advance of cut off dates.

Consider hiring earlier

Sponsors who hire a Skilled Worker directly from the Student visa category benefit from an exemption on the Immigration Skills Charge (ISC). This is usually missed because employers prefer to employ someone for two years on a Graduate visa without having to bear sponsorship costs, and test if sponsorship will be needed. But there are now three factors making it wise to consider early sponsorship: (a) the Graduate visa length will be reduced to 18 months (from 24 months currently), (b) the ISC going up by 32%, and (c) a worker may now require 10 years of sponsorship (!) to get to settlement.

Monitor developments, and contribute

All of this will take time. The paper is high-level policy, but implementation will come via a statement of changes, which will normally (but not always) give at least 21 days’ notice.

Finally, there will be multiple programmes of consultation, within which employers and other stakeholders should, and must, make their voices heard.