Trafficking referrals and decisions at record high in latest statistics

The quarterly trafficking statistics for July to September 2024 have been published, with a few records set including for the number of referrals and number of conclusive grounds decisions. The impact of the latter on delays is still difficult to tell because of the reorganisation of cases within the decision making bodies. What we can see though is extraordinarily low recognition rates and requests for those negative decisions to be reconsidered having success rates of over 70%.

The trafficking identification process

The Home Office has provided the following which summarises the identification process:

Referrals

4,758 people were referred as potential victims of modern slavery in the period July to September 2024. This was the highest number of referrals, by 16, since the National Referral Mechanism was introduced. 68% of those referred were adults and 31% children.

The 5% drop in referrals seen from April to June 2024 has not lasted, as referrals into the National Referral Mechanism were up 10% from that for the period July to September 2024. Year on year, referrals were up 15% compared to July to September 2023.

46% of referrals were based on exploitation that had happened exclusively outside the UK, up from 40% the previous quarter. 42% of potential victims reported exploitation in the UK only. This quarter is the first time that there has been a higher proportion of people whose cases were based on exploitation that occurred outside the UK.

Nationalities

After British citizens, the most common nationalities of people referred into the National Referral Mechanism for the period July to September were Albanian and Vietnamese nationals, both on 11%. This was a slight a drop from them each comprising 13% of the total in the period April to June 2024.

Recognition rates

Onto decisions, positive reasonable grounds (first stage) decisions made by the immigration enforcement competent authority remain extremely low, 21% for the period July to September 2024. This very low recognition rate can be contrasted with that of the single competent authority, the body that deals with British citizens and fewer immigration related cases. The single competent authority made a positive reasonable grounds decision in 55% of cases.

Both of these recognition rates are lower than in the previous quarter. The two main reasons for rejecting cases at this stage were that the competent authority considered that the referral did not have enough information to meet the standard of proof (48%) or that the referral did not meet the definition of modern slavery (47%).

Another record set this quarter is the number of conclusive grounds (second stage) decisions which at 5,188 was the highest since the National Referral Mechanism began. This would be welcome progress on delays if it were not for the fact that positive conclusive grounds decisions made by the immigration enforcement competent authority are now a woeful 11%, down from an already extremely low 21% the previous quarter. Positive conclusive grounds decisions made by the single competent authority are much higher and have dropped less, from 76% in April to June this year to 72% in July to September.

The reason that cases are being rejected at conclusive grounds stage is overwhelmingly because the decision maker considered that they did not have enough information to meet the standard of proof required (78%). A much lower 13% of cases are refused because the decision maker does not agree that the definition of modern slavery has been met.

Delays

We are not yet seeing much in the way of progress on delays in the average times from referral to conclusive grounds decision, as for the immigration enforcement competent authority this was 1,675 days, over four and a half years. The equivalent figure for the single competent authority is 725 days.

It is not quite as bad as it looks though, as this very high figure mainly relates to an older cohort of cases that was moved over to the immigration body earlier this year, and has now largely been worked through (1,487 of 1,914 of these cases have been concluded). So next quarter this figure should drop considerably.

Reconsiderations

The problem, as ever, with rushing to clear these backlogs is that poor decision making happens. For the period July to September 2024 reconsideration requests resulted in a positive decision for 72% of reasonable grounds decisions and 71% of conclusive grounds decisions. That is nowhere near good enough and the competent authorities should address this as a matter of urgency.

Conclusion

It is useful that the Home Office has started reporting the reasons for refusals, practitioners should ensure that they have addressed those points comprehensively when preparing cases.

It is very difficult to see that recognition rates can get any lower than they currently are. The Home Office must bear in mind that poor quality refusals will not save them time or money in the long run, as they will just need to reconsider the decisions at a later date or these issues will resurface if they try to remove the person.